deskthority

zslane wrote: ↑No, I think it is only $9000.

less than $6000 if everybody would pay their invoice right now.

We are so close!!!*


*) by the average speed money comes in, this is paid up in less than a month!

GriffDeLaGriff wrote: ↑You should ask SP if the statement is true that they will not make Round 7. If they can make it in summer 2018 thats still normal waitingtime

This is what I hope for. If they really only produce phase 2 in late 2017, there would be no way to start Round 7 production earlier than early 2018.

infodroid wrote: ↑What I understood...

There is $9,000 outstanding to pay to Signature Plastics, assuming that Round 7 payments can subsidize Round 6 Phase 2.

But Round 7 is cancelled and the funds will be refunded.

So in order for Round 6 Phase 2 to be produced, it is necessary to sell $27,000 worth of:

* Round 4 leftovers + Round 5 leftovers + Round 6 Phase 1 leftovers = $19,000 in stock
* Round 6 Phase 2 unsold kits = $15,000

This means that Round 6 Phase 2 is now on hold indefinitely until an extra $27,000 can be raised.

This is the best option for right now I think. Refund Round 7, sell inventory like crazy, schedule Round 6b in 2018.

Alternatively, do the same thing but give Round 7 purchasers the option to transfer their interest into purchasing already-existing inventory at a discount.

Also, I think 7bit is arguing that there would be less funds to raise overall if Round 7 can get the green light.

So maybe it is worth making a special effort to do that before cancelling it.

It would be good to understand what it would really take for SP to agree to produce Round 7.

For example maybe SP would prefer if somebody else took over organizing it.

infodroid wrote: ↑Also, I think 7bit is arguing that there would be less funds to raise overall if Round 7 can get the green light.

So maybe it is worth making a special effort to do that before cancelling it.

It would be good to understand what it would really take for SP to agree to produce Round 7.

For example maybe SP would prefer if somebody else took over organizing it.

I think it's pretty clear SP are moving to a PMK-Massdrop only model which probably makes sense from their point of view. Demand far outstrips supply and they have less of a hassle that way. As far as I know Godspeed and Dasher/Dancer are on the production plan and that's only the first half of the year. If they claim to be fully booked then they already have a roadmap with Massdrop or they plan to make their own (like Icecap).

I suspect that SP is perfectly willing to manufacture Round 7 (at some point in 2018, for instance) but that they are reluctant to commit to a firm schedule given how unpredictable payment has been for Round 6. That's why they used the words "forseeable future". It is merely their way of being non-commital. I think it is up to 7bit, at this point, to sweet-talk them into making at least a soft commitment to an early-2018 production window for Round 7, which should allow it to proceed without issuing refunds to everyone.

Cleared out my Round 7 order and ordered the HONEYG/TKL/CADET and HONEYB/SPACE625/SPH with my Round 7 credit. Hopefully this works out; no refund required.

7bit: What is the profile order on the HONEYG/TKL/CADET kit?

This is spiralling out of control really fast...

I don't even own a single mx mount keyboard anymore...

What did you order? ALGOL is round 7, Round 6 Phase 1 has been made and has almost finished shipping. It's Round 6 Phase 2 that is the current problem.[/quote]

Unfortnately I ordered all white sets. Im pretty sure thats the second half. That half hasn't been funded right?[/quote]
Yep, white is phase 2.[/quote]

So does anyone know how I can get a refund on my Round 7 order?

If 7bit can't secure an early-2018 production slot for Round 7, he'll be refunding all orders ASAP. Are you sure you don't want to at least wait and see if he succeeds? Those keycaps will definitely be worth waiting for if 7bit can get them made (and I don't see why he couldn't).

I definitely hope this can pull through. I love those keycaps and have been deciding which ones to order for the last couple of weeks.
I'll just wait to see what the official word is from Melissa.

Even IF SP cancels Round 7 once and for all, in my opinion the best thing to do would still be to first pay for phase 2 and then start refunding round 7. As soon as production of phase 2 is secured, leftovers will sell indefinitely better. That's the only way 7bit has a chance to pay everyone back.

(Yes, I also put money in round 7, but the funds from selling phase 2 caps are essential for getting everyones money back.)

nowai wrote: ↑Even IF SP cancels Round 7 once and for all, in my opinion the best thing to do would still be to first pay for phase 2 and then start refunding round 7. As soon as production of phase 2 is secured, leftovers will sell indefinitely better. That's the only way 7bit has a chance to pay everyone back.

(Yes, I also put money in round 7, but the funds from selling phase 2 caps are essential for getting everyones money back.)

Exactly. The big problem we have here is that lots of money was spent on tooling for custom legends that are part of Phase 1+2. They were all paid for in phase 1 but the costs will only be covered once phase 2 is also made and sold.

nowai wrote:Even IF SP cancels Round 7 once and for all, in my opinion the best thing to do would still be to first pay for phase 2 and then start refunding round 7. As soon as production of phase 2 is secured, leftovers will sell indefinitely better. That's the only way 7bit has a chance to pay everyone back.

(Yes, I also put money in round 7, but the funds from selling phase 2 caps are essential for getting everyones money back.)

That wouldn't exactly sit well with those who were only on for R7 – the GB is cancelled, and by the way you'll get your refund whenever.

R6 is where the problem is at, and that's where it ought to be solved in my opinion. And ethical aspects aside, having R7 buyers deal with the fallout from R6 would probably not do wonders for the goodwill and trust that's needed to pull off any future GBs.

Sent from my Nexus 9 using Tapatalk

zslane wrote: ↑If 7bit can't secure an early-2018 production slot for Round 7, he'll be refunding all orders ASAP. Are you sure you don't want to at least wait and see if he succeeds? Those keycaps will definitely be worth waiting for if 7bit can get them made (and I don't see why he couldn't).

I too love the keycaps and would like to get my hands on them someday. But I'd rather not wait another year. How long do you think it will take him to see if he can secure a spot for early 2018?

I would expect him to have an answer this week.

caligo wrote: ↑And ethical aspects aside, having R7 buyers deal with the fallout from R6 would probably not do wonders for the goodwill and trust that's needed to pull off any future GBs.

Future R6 leftovers are what "pay back" the funds that 7bit must "borrow" from R7 payments to get phase 2 produced (a situation caused by numerous unforseen issues). I'm sure he would use his own money instead, if he had it, but he doesn't. He has the necessary funds tied up in unsold inventory, not cash. SP does not extend a line of credit to community group buys, so guys like 7bit must get creative. He is doing his best to see to it that everyone gets what they paid for (eventually). But SP's production windows become more distant and more difficult to obtain with every passing day and week. Waiting for funds from unsold leftovers alone would make a nearly untenable situation impossible.

Let's give 7bit a break (and the benefit of the doubt). And let's try not to get too upset over the fact that we don't have, nor are we entitled to, control over his extremely challenging cash flow situation. For folks who didn't realize that 7bit group buys take years to go from pre-order to delivery, by all means request a refund. But for everyone else, I hope you can find it in your hearts (and wallets) to remain patient while 7bit does what he can to salvage the situation.

Agreed. He's already given an accounting of the funds here.

zslane wrote: ↑ Future R6 leftovers are what "pay back" the funds that 7bit must "borrow" from R7 payments to get phase 2 produced (a situation caused by numerous unforseen issues). I'm sure he would use his own money instead, if he had it, but he doesn't. He has the necessary funds tied up in unsold inventory, not cash. SP does not extend a line of credit to community group buys, so guys like 7bit must get creative. He is doing his best to see to it that everyone gets what they paid for (eventually). But SP's production windows become more distant and more difficult to obtain with every passing day and week. Waiting for funds from unsold leftovers alone would make a nearly untenable situation impossible.

Let's give 7bit a break (and the benefit of the doubt). And let's try not to get too upset over the fact that we don't have, nor are we entitled to, control over his extremely challenging cash flow situation. For folks who didn't realize that 7bit group buys take years to go from pre-order to delivery, by all means request a refund. But for everyone else, I hope you can find it in your hearts (and wallets) to remain patient while 7bit does what he can to salvage the situation.

Look, I'm not implying any malice here; I'm sure the intentions were always good and honourable. But when you use new investments instead of actual profit to pay returns (keycaps in this case), then what you have is, by definition, a Ponzi scheme. In this case it was not the intention, but nontheless that's what you end up with. But since it's not intentional in this case, it doesn't end with Charles Ponzi taking off to the Bahamas with everyone's money. Instead, what happens is the collapse of an inherently unstable system when some crisis occurs.

It's simply not a good way to go about doing things, since you have large inherent weaknesses and fault lines in such a setup – it's bound to crash. Problems with a GB should if at all possible be sorted within the confines of that GB, having it spill over to other stuff is asking for trouble. And if it does spill over, I really think prospective buyers ought to be informed of what it is they're getting into.

Also, this is not something that can be justified by the way SP schedules their production. As far as I understand, taking money from R7 was a way to deal with problems caused by (i) the cost for faulty Space Cadet keys, and (ii) people jumping ship because of delays, some of which where caused by paypal collectors going AWOL. These things have nothing to do with SPs production windows. This is just shit that sometimes happens.

I can be real patient if there is trust and some sense of things moving in the right direction. However, I'm not that keen on the idea of this thing moving forward using a setup that's inherently flawed. If it takes longer to do it right, I'd rather things be done right. But it's not like really it matters what I think – how we move forward is up to 7bit.

I'm really not interested in crucifying anyone for their sins here – 7bit talked in the other thread about selling his car and furniture, which I for one find absoultely heartbreaking. I want this thing to work out, and I certainly don't want it to lead to 7bits personal ruin. If it comes down to it, I'd rather just have the money be lost than having some guy live on the streets just because he owes me some keycaps. But my opinion on how this thing ought to proceed for this to work out still stands. And I still find it highly questionable to keep selling R7 stuff to people without telling them what the deal really is.

caligo wrote: ↑ Look, I'm not implying any malice here; I'm sure the intentions were always good and honourable. But when you use new investments instead of actual profit to pay returns (keycaps in this case), then what you have is, by definition, a Ponzi scheme. In this case it was not the intention, but nontheless that's what you end up with. But since it's not intentional in this case, it doesn't end with Charles Ponzi taking off to the Bahamas with everyone's money. Instead, what happens is the collapse of an inherently unstable system when some crisis occurs.

No you are wrong there. In a ponzi scheme at ony one time there is not enough assets to pay out all of the investors, there is no principal it is gone. In this case there is, it is just tied up in inventory. That's a liquidity crisis, not a ponzi scheme. That's very common actually, which is why when companies go bust you need to liquidate the assets to settle up with the creditors.

caligo wrote: ↑ It's simply not a good way to go about doing things, since you have large inherent weaknesses and fault lines in such a setup – it's bound to crash.

I agree. There are lots of problems with 7bit's methods, starting with having too many kits and offering too many options in a single group buy. But I'd rather spend our energies finding ways to solve the current crisis, not dissect how we got here.

Also, this is not something that can be justified by the way SP schedules their production. As far as I understand, taking money from R7 was a way to deal with problems caused by (i) the cost for faulty Space Cadet keys, and (ii) people jumping ship because of delays, some of which where caused by paypal collectors going AWOL. These things have nothing to do with SPs production windows. This is just shit that sometimes happens.

You're right, there's no justification there. I'm actually not offering justification, only explanation. SP's growing backlog is a contributing factor to the hard decisions 7bit faces here. If you were in his position, you would find the ever-tightening grip of shrinking production availability squeezing the life out of your group buy.

I can be real patient if there is trust and some sense of things moving in the right direction. However, I'm not that keen on the idea of this thing moving forward using a setup that's inherently flawed.

Fair enough. You are, of course, free to request a refund for your unproduced keycaps. I would only request that you not poison the well for everyone else who still wants to see the group buy move forward, to say nothing of the possible fence-sitters who are already nervous and whose extraction from the funding pool would only make things worse.

If it comes down to it, I'd rather just have the money be lost than having some guy live on the streets just because he owes me some keycaps.

And neither scenario needs to occur if we just take a breath and let 7bit try to work things out with SP.

And I still find it highly questionable to keep selling R7 stuff to people without telling them what the deal really is.

I agree that 7bit could improve his communication skills and be more transparent with what is going on at each step of the way. But maybe that'll never happen. All you can do, I suppose, is vow to never join one of his group buys again. But for now, you can either be part of the problem or part of the solution? Which will it be?

Tyr wrote: ↑ No you are wrong there. In a ponzi scheme at ony one time there is not enough assets to pay out all of the investors, there is no principal it is gone. In this case there is, it is just tied up in inventory. That's a liquidity crisis, not a ponzi scheme. That's very common actually, which is why when companies go bust you need to liquidate the assets to settle up with the creditors.

But isn't a Ponzi scheme is also by definition a liquidity crisis as soon as new money stops being added? Isn't that kind of the point? And at the moment, the current inventory wouldn't cover all the costs even if it's sold as far as I can see (although there have been a lot of numbers floating around here, so I might be wrong on that).

But the term used for the thing is not really a hill I'm willing to die on. And calling it something else does not make the setup any less flawed.

zslane wrote: ↑ I agree that 7bit could improve his communication skills and be more transparent with what is going on at each step of the way. But maybe that'll never happen. All you can do, I suppose, is vow to never join one of his group buys again. But for now, you can either be part of the problem or part of the solution? Which will it be?

I'd rather be part of the solution, if at all possible. Look, you initially responded to a post where I said prioritizing refunding R7 buyers was probably the better thing to do in the long run – the merits of that argument can be discussed, but its hardly anything but an honest attempt at contributing to a solition.

If Round 7 gets cancelled, prioritizing refunds won't merely be a "solution" it will become an ethical (if not legal) necessity. However, we're not there yet, and using alarmist language and advocating for mass refunds isn't what I would call being part of the solution. It certainly isn't helping to optimize a path where both Round 6 and Round 7 happen.

I too would advise people not panic and start doing mass chargebacks and Paypal disputes. Please consider Zslane, Myself, and two others are the collectors, and the money is with us. I understand frustrations, I'm in the same boat as everyone else (except I could not get a refund even if I wanted to try), but this will create problems for us as well and we've done nothing but try and help the cause.

I'll be happy to issue refunds if/when the time comes and that is decided to be the best course of action, but for now I think it is best to see what the fallout is and if there is a way to solve this without going full meltdown.

ehwc wrote: ↑

7bit wrote: ↑These orders are packed and will ship in 2 days:
...
0545
...

You wrote this back on Jan 3rd. Is there a reason 0545 still isn't shipped? I didn't see it listed under the orders shipped on your Jan 17th update.

Same deal with 0811...

zschiller wrote: ↑

ehwc wrote: ↑

7bit wrote: ↑These orders are packed and will ship in 2 days:
...
0545
...

You wrote this back on Jan 3rd. Is there a reason 0545 still isn't shipped? I didn't see it listed under the orders shipped on your Jan 17th update.

Same deal with 0811...

Same with 735...

I paid $598 yesterday for round 7. It seems somebody want refund just because can't get the keycaps in 2018, that's not a problem for me. Look at round 5 and round 6, how long they take? Stay patient is part of the game, and look at the colors and the fonts of round 7, they are worth waiting for. Finally, if I get the money back, where can I get so much colors and so much options? So just order the kits, pay for them, then stay patient even forget it, when I get the keycaps, that'll be a very big surprice!!
Zslane, Ail and other collectors are volunteers, not businessman, they serve us for free, so if you really want refund, please send refund and wait the result, don't start doing mass chargebacks and Paypal disputes.

zslane wrote:If Round 7 gets cancelled, prioritizing refunds won't merely be a "solution" it will become an ethical (if not legal) necessity. However, we're not there yet, and using alarmist language and advocating for mass refunds isn't what I would call being part of the solution. It certainly isn't helping to optimize a path where both Round 6 and Round 7 happen.

I have done none of these things: I responded to a post that advocated using R7 funds for R6 even if the former got cancelled. I do argue that the current state of things will probably affect people's willingness to stick by or join R7, making any solution that relies on a steady stream of cash from those buys less realistic, but that's just the facts of the situation.

Also, assuring people that there is enough cash to refund R7 should it come to that – and that this will take priority over phase 2 – would probably be the best way to avoid panic chargebacks, no?

Ail wrote: ↑I too would advise people not panic and start doing mass chargebacks and Paypal disputes. Please consider Zslane, Myself, and two others are the collectors, and the money is with us. I understand frustrations, I'm in the same boat as everyone else (except I could not get a refund even if I wanted to try), but this will create problems for us as well and we've done nothing but try and help the cause.

I'll be happy to issue refunds if/when the time comes and that is decided to be the best course of action, but for now I think it is best to see what the fallout is and if there is a way to solve this without going full meltdown.

I second this. Please be patient.