Round 7 / ALGOL-style / Deadline 2018-11-30

[caligo]

I don't think it's that so much as the long and uncertain timeframes inherent in 7bits setup. With Massdrop, SP knows the GB usually hits MOQ and have a set end-date.

[Menuhin]

Out of curiosity, I looked up Signature Plastics on Google map.
https://goo.gl/maps/hY3FZjPG7DR2

Its a small self-standing factory near a city called Bellingham at the edge of the border to Canada - I know a professor retired to this city for its calm and green environment.
Given its size and location, it is probably operating like a self-sustaining family business than huge profit seeking enterprising approach. They probably don't want to be too busy otherwise they may need to hire more employees and get better machines, and probably they don't want to be disturbed too much by e-mails and phone calls.

It is important to keep this factory alive and have their "do it in my way" tradition, as just counting the hardware many molds of good key cap profiles were lost in the past, e.g. beamspring, alps low profile, etc. But at this speed, the competitive and want-to-get-rich newcomers from China will take over sooner or later, as soon as they find way to make some profit. My concern is, products from China are most of the time produced only for profit: as long as an item passes the lowest passing criteria of QC the manufacturers will be fine with it, look at the China made cars - they just made it at a passing grade on papers in the past 5 years so that they can have better export car businesses. Rarely will people find their time and energy to perfect a product or a manufacturing process, i.e. years of R&D tradition is yet to develop from absence to a matching standard to that in the old industrial countries.

[krutmob]

If we would keep the Round 7 money and only pay from Round 5 and 6 leftover sales, it will never work out.

It would mean we have money, but don't use it. Istead wait for more money to finally pay for the rest of the production. It is difficult enough with all those delays caused by Signature Plastics and people jumping off.

Once, SP has the money for the keys, we can do the refund businnes, but before I really don't want to have money refunded because all that does is further delay the whole thing.


Maybe I should make it more clear that we have to pay in full in advance and that there is no way to pay that money back, until the production is running.


$18168.50 has been collected for Round 7 (including unpaid orders) and I have keys in stock worth $16804.50 plus those I have not yet listed, plus my reserve to cover lost shippings ($2395 in stock kits), plus my own order ($3142, not yet packed). So let's say this is well balanced.


ps: When I look at this, maybe I should sell my own order ...

Based on the most recent statement from SP, it seems that Round 7 production is unlikely. If true, payments made for Round 7 fund only Round 6 and nothing else. Seems your plan to fund Round 7 caps is to sell existing inventory. However if SP won't produce or if you can't break even, those who paid for Round 7 caps would never receive caps--they would only facilitate the possibility of Round 6 orders being fulfilled.

I would like to know what 7bit has to say about this.

My questions:

1. What is your plan if SP will not produce Round 7?
2. Will you consider a Chinese manufacturer?
3. If you can't sell off your inventory to fund Round 7, or you can't cover the cost of production by liquidating what you have, are you concerned you may have to file for bankruptcy (whatever that looks like in Germany) to settle your accounts?
4. Are you concerned that failure to produce Round 7 could constitute $18k of breach of contract damages, or at worst fraud?
5. Can you provide an accounting of Round 6, including how much of the Round 6 funds are missing (stolen by collectors?)?

[7bit]

I've got to contact Signature Plastics about that.

Not sure what this is all about. I know they push my production down the line all the time and prefer Massdrop. And I know I always have to covcer their mistakes (wrong colors, wrongly scaled legends, keys not produced etc.)

BTW: From whom is that information?

If this is true, the only way would be to cancel Round 7 and Round 6 phase 2 together.

Signature plastics is holding $17928 and the 4 money collectors a bit more than $17066.

Refunding of Round 7 payments seems possible (about $18000).

Refunding Round 6 phase 2 is not possible. At this point, we need about $7000 which should be not much of a problem within a month, but
refunding would mean to pay back about $70000.

If this information is true and comes from Signature Plastics directly, they must hate me so much that they want to kill me.

They made a lot of mistakes and I have to take the blame. Really nice!

Also: I sit on 4 boxes full of leftover keys that will only make sense to sell when I have the phase 2 keys.

I need to get into the office to get the current figures together. A lot of people had payment rebates, so the amount might be lower.

Sorry for all this trouble.

[7bit]

Tooling costs (tools to be used for Round 7 as well!) where $6150 and Signature Plastics inability to let me know that the legends where at the wrong scale cost another $5000 of which only about $1200 came back when selling the keys with the too small legends (HONEYB/ALPHA/CADET/S and HONEYB/ALPHA/CADET/T).

There where $3834.20 invoiced more than in the last price quote for phase 1, BTW. SP never explained why.

Long talk short:

- Round 7 is canceled.
- The funds ready to pay for phase 2 production is needed to refund all Round 7 preorders.
- The missing amount for phase 2 is raised to $25000 with a lot more people jump off maybe more.
- amount of keys in phase 2 for sale is $15000 and in stock is still $18000, both together still cover those $25000 missing.

The question is just when will SP give me a production window.
They pushed Round 5 around and interrupted the production several times, even though it was fully paid up. They did this with Round 6 phase 1 as well!

Please, let me contact Melissa on Monday first, then we will see what to do.

[krutmob]

I've got to contact Signature Plastics about that.
BTW: From whom is that information?

On the PMK site: http://pimpmykeyboard.com/whats-new/

"We are still waiting for funds for Round 6b. Once received, we will review the production schedule and provide an estimated completion date. Currently we are booked out to the end of 2017 in two-shot SA sets. Due to a number of factors, the main one being the overwhelming demand for custom SA sets, Round 6b will be the last of the Round orders we will produce in the foreseeable future."

This makes it sound like SP hasn't received anything for Round 6b yet. Hopefully that isn't the case.

So the money in play looks like this:
- Signature Plastics: $17928
- GW and PP Collectors: $17066
- Total amount available to refund: $34994

Which makes Round 6b impossible, but at least refunds Round 7 and some of Round 6b if inventory is liquidated.

Therefore if Round 7 is canceled, Round 6b is by necessity.

Very interested in what Melissa has to say. I would want to try to get it in writing.

---

Reddit discussion from earlier today: https://www.reddit.com/r/MechanicalKeyb ... se_2_will/

This group buy has been added to the /mk "PSA: Group Buys" wiki: https://www.reddit.com/r/MechanicalKeyb ... r_planning

[7bit]

I don't think it's that so much as the long and uncertain timeframes inherent in 7bits setup. With Massdrop, SP knows the GB usually hits MOQ and have a set end-date.

The phase 1 keys where paid for since April 2016 and supposed to be finished by end of May.

Production took until October 2016!
Reason 1: wrongly scaled legends, re-use of previously rejected legends for which the tooling costs of the correct version has already been paid
Reason 2: SP forgot to produce several pages from my order
Reason 3: SP obviouly gives Massdrop priority should they have something to be produced

Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2016 14:04:33 -0700

Attached is pricing for Phase 2. I will follow up with Barb in our
accounting department to see if she can send the invoice today. I am still
working on taking pictures - it would appear that production did not mold
the keys for pages 51-59 of the first phase (the RDE/WCK keys), so I am
following up to see when those will be complete.
I will advise when we receive payments.

They shipped off the keys on 18 October 2016!

[7bit]

I've got to contact Signature Plastics about that.
BTW: From whom is that information?

On the PMK site: http://pimpmykeyboard.com/whats-new/

"We are still waiting for funds for Round 6b. Once received, we will review the production schedule and provide an estimated completion date. Currently we are booked out to the end of 2017 in two-shot SA sets. Due to a number of factors, the main one being the overwhelming demand for custom SA sets, Round 6b will be the last of the Round orders we will produce in the foreseeable future."

This makes it sound like SP hasn't received anything for Round 6b yet. Hopefully that isn't the case.

Round 7 is canceled?

One factor is the fact that it was my first spherical group buy to cover costs for 6.25 and 7 units space bars and make sure other group buys can follow!

They have (if all 4 payment collectors would pay their invoices) as much as to cover production of 3 of the 4 colors, plus a little extra. If SP would start production today, they could have the money for the remaining color within a month (which is less time the production alone would take).

Also: SP does not realise that those constant delays ensure that people jump off and delay the whole thing even further.

I have no trouble with Round 7 being produced in 2018, since it was clear from the beginning that it will not happen anytime soon, but why can't they push forward the other production once phase 2 is paid up (by end of February)?

They did this with Round 5 and now would be payback time.

[Wodan]

I think SP is at the peak of their SA popularity/demand right now and they afford cherry picking (no pun intended)

Let's hope SA profile can keep them alive because their DCS profile has been dead for a while now and DSA has just just gotten a strong Chinese competitor.

Maybe they do realize that the SA profile is their future and will invest the profits from current SA runs (SA has gotten more and more expensive to order) into more SA capacity. I don't see much of a future for their DCS and DSA profiles ...

Anyway, sad to hear this will now pretty much collapse, hopefully we can find a way to hold on to Phase2 at least. While this would probably take quite a while to unravel, it sounds like the cleanest solution.

[7bit]

...

This makes it sound like SP hasn't received anything for Round 6b yet. Hopefully that isn't the case.

So the money in play looks like this:
- Signature Plastics: $17928
- GW and PP Collectors: $17066
- Total amount available to refund: $34994

Which makes Round 6b impossible, but at least refunds Round 7 and some of Round 6b if inventory is liquidated.

Therefore if Round 7 is canceled, Round 6b is by necessity.

Well, if they would reserve a production spot, those ca. $25000 missing could be covered by "in stock" items alone, plus what is not yet listed.

I already did the math for this:

...
$18168.50 has been collected for Round 7 (including unpaid orders) and I have keys in stock worth $16804.50 plus those I have not yet listed, plus my reserve to cover lost shippings ($2395 in stock kits), plus my own order ($3142, not yet packed). ...

$22341.50 all together, plus "in stock" items to be produced: $15000.
plus yet unlisted keys.

It is bad but not too bad. If I could convice Melissa to reserve a production window within this year. I've asked for that several times, but she never wants to do that.

--

I still have got switches etc. worth $15,000, so the amount of unsold items is more than $50,000, minus $18,000 gives $32,000 to cover ca. $25,000 needed to pay for production and shipping of phase 2.

This is quite narrow, but doable, even if I have to sell my complete keyboard collection ...


--
Amount to refund if phase 2 is canceled:
$70,000
refundable right now: ca. $17,000 (money held by collectors and SP, minus $18,000 for Round 7)
refundable after sales: $52,000 (in stock items plus $17,000)
$18,000 can't be refunded.

There is no other way, it only gets forward, backward is no option.

If my above math is correct, it should be easier to sell items currently listed at $50,000 for "only" $43,000 instead of trying to cover $18,000 out of nothing (my furniture and car should back that amount easily though ) given I sell what I have for $35,000 (can't sell phase 2 keys if we cancel them).

[DanielT]

I think SP is at the peak of their SA popularity/demand right now and they afford cherry picking (no pun intended)

Let's hope SA profile can keep them alive because their DCS profile has been dead for a while now and DSA has just just gotten a strong Chinese competitor.

Maybe they do realize that the SA profile is their future and will invest the profits from current SA runs (SA has gotten more and more expensive to order) into more SA capacity. I don't see much of a future for their DCS and DSA profiles ...

Anyway, sad to hear this will now pretty much collapse, hopefully we can find a way to hold on to Phase2 at least. While this would probably take quite a while to unravel, it sounds like the cleanest solution.

China solved the SA problem too, I saw some SA clones on Taobao the other day....

[7bit]

I've heard rumoprs there are people working on that. Maybe it is an option for the future, but for sure they will look different and have different colors if they have a different supplier, so for phase 2 production this would not work out. Even if cheaper, tools cost money too. But might be an option for Round 7. Or I have to give up on sphericals and drive to GMK and have a talk with them. But all I know is they are more expendive and have even higher MOQ.


Please hold on for some nice keyboard, switches and key cap deals. I really need to sell some stuff right now.

[Wodan]

You can hold my Round7 refund until after Phase2 has been made ... should it be made

So far I have not seen convincing doubleshot keycaps from Asia. They do great dye sub jobs but the collectible doubleshots are still a German/US domain.

I really think the next step should be GMK. I have made nothing but great experiences with them!

You will be fighting for EVERY new mold with them though. Also their MOQ is a different league ... but I see great potential.

[LeandreN]

You can hold my Round7 refund until after Phase2 has been made ... should it be made

So far I have not seen convincing doubleshot keycaps from Asia. They do great dye sub jobs but the collectible doubleshots are still a German/US domain.

I really think the next step should be GMK. I have made nothing but great experiences with them!

You will be fighting for EVERY new mold with them though. Also their MOQ is a different league ... but I see great potential.

I think GMK + 7bit would be a killer combo

[krutmob]

I think GMK + 7bit would be a great thing as well. I also think that if these GBs go forward, a normal website storefront would be smart, i.e. Originative, KeyClack, etc. Forums-based purchasing is just more complicated than necessary.

I'll be buying more of your in stock items, 7bit, and I doubt I'll be the only one. This might hurt for a while but it will pass.

[Ail]

I've heard rumoprs there are people working on that. Maybe it is an option for the future, but for sure they will look different and have different colors if they have a different supplier, so for phase 2 production this would not work out. Even if cheaper, tools cost money too. But might be an option for Round 7. Or I have to give up on sphericals and drive to GMK and have a talk with them. But all I know is they are more expendive and have even higher MOQ.


Please hold on for some nice keyboard, switches and key cap deals. I really need to sell some stuff right now.

I won't ask for a refund of my phase 2 caps if you send me a nice vintage board from your collection.

[SL89]

More of the same old stuff from SP. I'll never understand why they kept putting off 7bits orders, arent his dollars as green as MassDrops?

I understand picking and choosing your battles, but you cant just take payment... and then keep kicking the can down the road! Let alone making 7bit pay for retooling when THEY messed up time and again.

Clearly there is a change in how they do business, because prior to the birth of PMK and the rise of MassDrop, these issues weren't so big.

edit: grammar

[zslane]

As I understand things, the order, payment, and production history of Round 6 has been a chaotic mess with plenty of blame to go around. I honestly feel that pointing the finger solely at SP is neither factually supportable nor helpful to the current dilemma.

Furthermore, there have been other disturbing issues recently not having anything at all to do with SP. For instance, what happened in Oct with the fund collectors? Seems that 7bit was left bent over and holding his ankles for weeks/months trying to figure out who had paid how much and for what. That royally screwed his already fragile cash flow.

[caligo]

There sure is plenty of blame to go around, and a lot of it falls on SP. But it is also the case that this operation was set up for failure. Using new GBs to obtain cash that can be injected into ongoing one's is just postponing the inevitable crash. I'm not even going to do an 'I told you so', I mostly find the whole thing sad. SP axing R7 right after my rant about Ponzi schemes was kind of eerie though.

Let's say things work out: R6 phase 2 gets made, and R7 gets a slot sometime late 2018 or something after lots of pleading with SP. R7 would still effectively start out with a negative balance in it's account – people would not be paying for keycaps yet to be produced, they'd effectively be buying R6 leftovers and then hope 7bit manages to sell those. At the monent, R7 has $0 in cash and commitments to produce $17'000 woth of keycaps. What's plan B going to be, starting Round 8 to get a cash inflow going that can be diverted to R7?

At this point, I honestly think R7 is doomed in its current form – no matter what SP does. The limitations and risks of the current setup have been made all too apparent, and I'm not so sure people would be willing to jump on this bandwagon once more should it get moving again. 'Want to finance R7 with R6 leftovers? Good, sell those off and then we'll talk.' That's probably the sentiment right now, if I where to venture a guess. And I guess it's a sentiment I share, although the fact I have quite a lot invested in R6 phase 2 as well makes me kind of conflicted.

[zslane]

That doesn't work simply due to the fact that SP production windows have become the primary stress point for future group buys wanting a slot. It is necessary to exercise a more flexible cash flow scheme in order to get sets into production now.

[chuckdee]

There sure is plenty of blame to go around, and a lot of it falls on SP. But it is also the case that this operation was set up for failure. Using new GBs to obtain cash that can be injected into ongoing one's is just postponing the inevitable crash. I'm not even going to do an 'I told you so', I mostly find the whole thing sad. SP axing R7 right after my rant about Ponzi schemes was kind of eerie though.

People keep saying this, but ignoring the report on funds by 7bit. Funds are not in hand, true enough, but R7 is being used for liquidity, not total funding, which would be the case of a Ponzi scheme. He has inventory in stock to cover the shortfall. At least, that's what I get from reading that same report.

[caligo]

People keep saying this, but ignoring the report on funds by 7bit. Funds are not in hand, true enough, but R7 is being used for liquidity, not total funding, which would be the case of a Ponzi scheme. He has inventory in stock to cover the shortfall. At least, that's what I get from reading that same report.

I don't think anyone but me used that term in the discussion at hand, to be honest. I find it an adequate desription of something which is supposed to be self-sustaining but in practice relies on an inflow of new capital. I guess it can be called a hybrid or a partial Ponzi scheme, but it's not like the word is used in its legal sense here anyway.

As far as i understand it, the inventory in stock does not cover everything. Some of the leftovers are in phase 2, and obviously need to be paid for before they can be sold. At least per this quote from the other thread.

Here are the exact figures:

Key caps in stock for sale: $19,000


Round 6 phase 2 for sale: $15,000


Amount needed to pay for production: $9,000


after $18,000 had been refunded for Round 7: $27,000


This is not really bad.

But arguing semantics is kind of beside the point, and I'm no economist. The gist of the argument remains valid no matter what term is used to describe the situation at hand. In the case of a R7 refund, here's $27'000 to go, and only $19'000 in stock that can be converted to cash – if it actually sells. There are assets, but they don't cover all of it

[zslane]

I find it an adequate desription of something which is supposed to be self-sustaining but in practice relies on an inflow of new capital. I guess it can be called a hybrid or a partial Ponzi scheme, but it's not like the word is used in its legal sense here anyway.

I don't think that description is "adequate" at all, because it is essentially inaccurate. It is not a hybrid or partial Ponzi scheme, it is how businesses (which sell hard goods) manage cash flow as a general course.

If Round 7 is cancelled and 7bit has to refund the remaining $27,000, there would only be $7,000 worth of "collateral" in the form of unpurchased Round 5/6 leftover keycaps available, leaving a deficit of $2,000 to cover a $9,000 bill for the remainder of Round 6. 7bit is contemplating liquidating personal assets to cover that amount, but it would be far better (for him, and really anyone who feels any inkling to support him at all in this endeavor) to use profits from Round 7 sales to cover it instead. But that can't happen if Round 7 gets cancelled all together. Nor does anyone get any lovely Round 7 keycaps.

[niomosy]

Judging by what SP says in that update, this is actually not a chance at all – the ship has already sailed, since R6 phase 2 will be the last 'Round' set they make. Now, 'forseeable future' does not necessarily mean 'forever'. But it does sound like they'll produce R6 phase 2 in the beginning of 2018 at the earliest, and R7 way later than than if at all.

Well they're not doing much of anything else with doubleshot SA sets in 2017 at this point anyway. I think their statement holds true for basically any new SA sets that try to go through now. Given the scope of the Round buys, perhaps they felt it necessary to call them out specifically. We'll have to wait for word from SP on those details. For right now, I don't really see this as the end of Round buys but more a strong delay.

[rominronin]

I find it an adequate desription of something which is supposed to be self-sustaining but in practice relies on an inflow of new capital. I guess it can be called a hybrid or a partial Ponzi scheme, but it's not like the word is used in its legal sense here anyway.

I don't think that description is "adequate" at all, because it is essentially inaccurate. It is not a hybrid or partial Ponzi scheme, it is how businesses (which sell hard goods) manage cash flow as a general course.

If Round 7 is cancelled and 7bit has to refund the remaining $27,000, there would only be $7,000 worth of "collateral" in the form of unpurchased Round 5/6 leftover keycaps available, leaving a deficit of $2,000 to cover a $9,000 bill for the remainder of Round 6. 7bit is contemplating liquidating personal assets to cover that amount, but it would be far better (for him, and really anyone who feels any inkling to support him at all in this endeavor) to use profits from Round 7 sales to cover it instead. But that can't happen if Round 7 gets cancelled all together. Nor does anyone get any lovely Round 7 keycaps.

I think zslane's answer here has to be read by all who call this a ponzi scheme.

A question: If SP left the Round 6 misprints for 7bit to deal with, rather than refund or reprint at no extra cost, would 7bit still be out of pocket as he is? If not then SP isn't getting NEARLY as much criticism as 7bit has recently received for the situation, and not half as much as they deserve...

[Wodan]

... but R7 is being used for liquidity, not total funding, which would be the case of a Ponzi scheme. ..

Thanks for putting this into the right words.

Some of the kids here don't seem to understand the difference.

[chuckdee]

I don't think anyone but me used that term in the discussion at hand, to be honest.

I didn't say people in this thread for a particular reason. There are others elsewhere that have used the same term. And it is a totally unfair characterization of the situation, used in order to generate an emotional response over the past high profile true Ponzi schemes. If it's not being used for that reason, I apologize, but there's really no other rational explanation, considering if you look up what a Ponzi scheme is, this is in no way, shape, or form, related to that definition.

I'll even quote the definition for those who might not look it up:

a form of fraud in which belief in the success of a nonexistent enterprise is fostered by the payment of quick returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors.

Emphasis mine. This is in no way a nonexistent enterprise, therefore easily fails that definition. So can we use less inflammatory and more relevant terms, if any are needed other than the buy is being handled with good faith, and there were issues with collection and re-do of some of the product? Don't really see the need to label it at all.

[q1w2e3r4t5z]

TL;DR: As someone who was affected by the Ivan GB and is getting a tad anxious now: Do we receive refunds for R7 or what happens next? If so, when? I really wanted R7 ;(

[Bender]

... but R7 is being used for liquidity, not total funding, which would be the case of a Ponzi scheme. ..

Thanks for putting this into the right words.

Some of the kids here don't seem to understand the difference.

How about the term "pyramid scheme" then?

[zslane]

I believe 7bit is waiting to hear from SP regarding the conditions under which they will run Round 7.