A new US Republican thread 2016

jacobolus

16 Jul 2017, 09:13

Over 80% of Republicans still approve of the way Trump is handling his presidency, at least when someone calls to take a poll.

We’ll see what happens when, inevitably, a couple dozen Trump associates get indicted for violation of campaign finance laws, espionage, wire fraud, money laundering, perjury, obstruction of justice, etc.

I suspect the actual policy consequences will be beyond a high percentage of these folks. Many of them are too old to have any ongoing relationship with the education system (even the ones who have grandchildren are basically oblivious to the effect their votes have on schools). A high proportion are retired, self-employed, living off government assistance (ironically), etc., and won’t be directly impacted by weakening of worker protections, collective bargaining rights, etc. Continuing decay of infrastructure, and lack of investment in new infrastructure improvements, is a process that impacts quality of life only gradually, and will just get blamed on “government” being “incompetent”.

On issues of fundamental rights (e.g. access to basic reproductive care for poor women, food assistance for children in poverty, protections against discrimination by race or sexual orientation, requirements of accessibility for people with disabilities, and so on), these are mostly old straight white christians, who seem indifferent if not gleeful at the prospect of others’ suffering.

When GOP dirty tricksters wrongly bump people off the voter rolls, reduce poll locations in minority neighborhoods, change the law so that it’s harder for people to vote, intimidate and harass non-profit groups doing voter registration, etc., or when they redraw ludicrous district boundaries that steal legislative seats from the Democrats, Republicans applaud, because who gives a shit about democracy as long as your team is winning. When the campaign finance laws are gutted so that billionaires, large corporations, and hostile foreign governments can secretly funnel billions of dollars into campaign spending (including lots of money that ends up in candidates’ pockets), that’s considered “capitalism” and “freedom of speech” at work.

Foreign policy has very little direct impact on Americans living in 90% white communities. If we hand out small arms like candy and a bunch of child soldiers somewhere far away murder each other and pillage civilian towns, Americans can safely ignore it or sigh about how uncivilized “those people” are. Immigration crack-downs will further depress their economies and drive up food prices, but the systems are complicated enough that it’s hard to immediately connect causes to effects in the face of overwhelming propaganda.

Policy changes like allowing mining in national parks, letting heavy industry and agriculture continue to dump toxic sludge into waterways, failing to control pesticides herbicides that cause health problems to agricultural workers, weakening car emissions standards, gutting the Endangered Species Act, etc. have consequences that tend to effect people without much political voice and animals with no political voice at all, so GOP voters are happy to write those off entirely. Global climate change might render vast swaths of the planet uninhabitable for humans and drive huge problems with water access, refugees, war, disease, etc., but the most dire effects won’t be felt for a few decades still, and again mostly will pound the tropical poor, who GOP voters are already happy to blame for their own misfortune.

The biggest impact on them personally would probably be healthcare, but it looks like the current healthcare proposals have enough short-term consequences that (a few) Republican senators are unnwilling to go along for now – if the Congress manages to compromise on a health bill the effects will probably not really kick in for a few years, and plenty of these voters will somehow manage to blame Democrats anyway.

jacobolus

17 Jul 2017, 17:21

Trump’s border wall is apparently going to really take it to those dirty immigrants: birds, butterflies, and the endangered ocelot: https://thinkprogress.org/trump-border- ... 9427af7c7f

jacobolus

18 Jul 2017, 20:28


jacobolus

18 Jul 2017, 23:32

Republican voters are either grossly ignorant/uninformed, or simply in denial of reality.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... ussia.html
On Russia related issues we find a certain degree of willful ignorance among Trump voters that can possibly best be summarized by this finding: only 45% of Trump voters believe Donald Trump Jr. had a meeting with Russians about information that might be harmful to Hillary Clinton...even though Trump Jr. admitted it. 32% say the meeting didn't happen and 24% say they're not sure.
Donnie Jr: “I had a meeting with the Russians to talk about dirt on Clinton. Here is the email chain that proves it”

GOP Voters: “FAKE NEWS!!”
-72% of Trump voters consider the Russia story overall to be 'fake news,' only 14% disagree.

-Only 24% of Trump voters even want an investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia, 64% are opposed to an investigation.

-Even if there was an investigation, and it found that the Trump campaign did collude with Russia to aid his campaign, 77% of his supporters think he should still stay in office to just 16% who believe he should resign.

-Only 26% of Trump voters admit that Russia wanted Trump to win the election, 44% claim Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win, and 31% say they're not sure one way or the other.

-Just 13% of Trump voters believe that members of Trump's campaign team did work with the Russians to help his campaign, to 81% who say they didn't. On a related note only 9% believe that either Donald Trump Jr. or Jared Kushner engaged in illegal activity to help Trump get elected, to 77% who say Kushner didn't and 79% who say Trump Jr. didn't.

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chuckdee

20 Jul 2017, 14:36

Hilarious! Keegan-Michael Key Brings Luther, Obama's Anger Translator, Out Of Retirement

jacobolus

21 Jul 2017, 05:18

Trump is now asking if he can pardon his aides, his family members, and himself. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

Sounds like Trump thinks everyone around him is guilty of serious illegal shit.

jacobolus

21 Jul 2017, 05:39

Oh look, the GOP is back to helping corporations screw regular people out of money. This time, it’s preventing customers who have been defrauded by their banks from joining class-action lawsuits:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

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seebart
Offtopicthority Instigator

22 Jul 2017, 13:51

chuckdee wrote: Hilarious! Keegan-Michael Key Brings Luther, Obama's Anger Translator, Out Of Retirement
Brilliant thanks for sharing. Laughing is soo important these days.
jacobolus wrote: Trump is now asking if he can pardon his aides, his family members, and himself. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

Sounds like Trump thinks everyone around him is guilty of serious illegal shit.
Yeah I saw that, it gives us a hint at the "logic" Trump must levitate within.

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fohat
Elder Messenger

22 Jul 2017, 14:15

The debate about whether a president could pardon himself (even in advance of indictment or conviction) has been debated since the first Congress in 1789. There is actually nothing in the Constitution that would prevent it.

jacobolus

22 Jul 2017, 22:04

The president cannot pardon himself. It would violate the foundations of English common law going back centuries.

Here’s a 1997 Yale Law Review article, http://digitalcommons.law.msu.edu/cgi/v ... xt=facpubs

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seebart
Offtopicthority Instigator

23 Jul 2017, 22:50

jacobolus wrote: The president cannot pardon himself. It would violate the foundations of English common law going back centuries.

Here’s a 1997 Yale Law Review article, http://digitalcommons.law.msu.edu/cgi/v ... xt=facpubs
Well that's good to know. I somewhow doubt Trump himself is aware...
Yes, Trump Could Pardon Himself. Then All Hell Would Break Loose
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... 5?lo=ap_f1

jacobolus

24 Jul 2017, 05:05

I don’t buy Politico’s political analysis there.

If it is clearly shown (financial records, recorded conversations, low-level people testifying against the folks at the top, ...) that Trump colluded with a hostile foreign government to spy on the opposing party and run a billion-dollar propaganda campaign during an election, stayed financially afloat on 2 decades of Russian money laundering, accepted foreign bribes for policy changes, obstructed multiple federal criminal investigations, and supported several of his cronies lying under oath, it’s going to be really hard to skate out with a pardon.

My own guess is that at least 20 or 30 people in the Trump campaign/administration will end up doing prison time (including his son and son in law), even if Trump himself does not. Trump’s businesses will end up facing serious liability, and many of the people involved will have their ill-gotten profits seized and face criminal charges.

It might take a while though, possibly 4+ years. The Democrats will undoubtedly pick up many seats in 2018, but it might not be enough for a majority in Congress, especially as the GOP is gearing up for unprecedented levels of voter suppression and other electoral shenanigans. We’ll see how 2018 turns out. Impeachment in the House after a drawn-out trial with all the dirty laundry aired in public would put very sharp political pressure on Republican Senators to vote to remove Trump from office.

The Democrats will very likely manage a majority in 2020 at the latest, assuming they have a solid candidate at the top of the ticket. We can only hope that the Supreme Court makes a favorable decision in the current gerrymandering cases.

Trump’s popularity isn’t going anywhere but down from here out, especially if the GOP manages to wreck the healthcare system the way they want to.

Trump’s simply not mentally stable or competent enough to manage any serious policy victories (not to mention his basic factual ignorance about pretty much every topic), and sooner or later he’ll face some real crisis situations (e.g. a big natural disaster, or another financial shock), and make a hash of the response. Pretty much every federal agency is dramatically understaffed at the level of appointed officials, and most of the appointees who have been put into place are incompetent, corrupt, and undisciplined. There is an unprecedented amount of leaking, backbiting, and bickering in this White House.

I also don’t know if he has the mental/emotional toughness and stamina to stick it out for another 42 months, even if the GOP stays in control in congress. Look how incoherent, isolated, paranoid, and unhinged he has gotten in just 6 months.

* * *

Of course, all of this was pretty much obvious before the election to anyone who spent any time researching Trump’s past or character, or even watching his norm-shattering campaign. His election was a national disgrace, and any Trump voters who still pretend to be patriots should be working overtime to atone for their cataclysmic failure of judgment.

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chuckdee

24 Jul 2017, 16:50

Thune: Senate won’t give up on Obamacare repeal if bill fails this week

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/2 ... eal-240860

At some point, you give up, and move on. Clinton had to do that with the initial health care reform efforts. There are other areas they could concentrate on. A good portion, if not a majority of a Americans are against this after seeing their prior efforts, and their efforts to just nuke it. So why not listen and put aside hubris.

To be sure, the Clinton effort went on much too long before being declared dead in September- nine months of massaging an effort that was dead long before. But it seems that there's something to be learned in not letting things drag on. But they repeat the errors of a prior administration. Give up, declare the efforts dead, and move on. With the House, Senate, and Executive branches, the GOP hasn't been able to pass one meaningful piece of legislature. McConnell is the emperor with no clothes at this point. Whatever magic he had seems to not be working. One might say it's the nature of the legislature that they are trying to address?

jacobolus

25 Jul 2017, 02:58

They can’t give up on repealing the ACA because their tax plan depends on having healthcare taken care of first. They want to do all of their legislation through the budget reconciliation process so that they can get away with only needing 50 votes + Pence in the Senate instead of needing 60 votes (they’re never going to get 8 Democrats to sign on to the radical parts of their agenda). But there are some weird procedural constraints on how far they can bend the rules to pretend arbitrary bills are really budget reconciliation.

Here’s a CNN thing from a few months ago about it http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/09/politics/ ... index.html
(not really the clearest explanation, but came up near the top of a web search; if you search the web yourself you can probably find a better one.)

jacobolus

25 Jul 2017, 03:05

Trump trying to turn the Boy Scouts into the Trumpjugend
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017 ... couts.html
Boos for Obama and Clinton, chants of “We Love Trump”, weird suggestion he might fire the HHS Secretary, and an allusion to all the sex Trump’s buddy has on his yacht, etc.

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vivalarevolución
formerly prdlm2009

25 Jul 2017, 16:36

jacobolus wrote: Trump trying to turn the Boy Scouts into the Trumpjugend
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017 ... couts.html
Boos for Obama and Clinton, chants of “We Love Trump”, weird suggestion he might fire the HHS Secretary, and an allusion to all the sex Trump’s buddy has on his yacht, etc.
Eagle Scout here. That speech and the crowd's reaction leaves me speechless. The Boy Scouts can be a little heavy on obedience, deference to authority, religious overtones, and patriotism, but it's an international organization that is inclusive of many non-Christian faiths and does not teach boys to act like that. The speech and the crowds reactikn are both disappointing.

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seebart
Offtopicthority Instigator

25 Jul 2017, 19:37

jacobolus wrote: I don’t buy Politico’s political analysis there.
Honestly I could not tell you I don't have enough knowledge of US politics. One positive side note that Trump is having is that I'm actually learning about the US political system bit by bit. Thanks Trump. ;) :lol:

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chuckdee

26 Jul 2017, 03:48

vivalarevolución wrote:
jacobolus wrote: Trump trying to turn the Boy Scouts into the Trumpjugend
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017 ... couts.html
Boos for Obama and Clinton, chants of “We Love Trump”, weird suggestion he might fire the HHS Secretary, and an allusion to all the sex Trump’s buddy has on his yacht, etc.
Eagle Scout here. That speech and the crowd's reaction leaves me speechless. The Boy Scouts can be a little heavy on obedience, deference to authority, religious overtones, and patriotism, but it's an international organization that is inclusive of many non-Christian faiths and does not teach boys to act like that. The speech and the crowds reactikn are both disappointing.
Eagle Scout here, and I totally agree with you. Not sure if it was just this group, or the organization in general these days, because I haven't been involved for at least 10 years, but it's an indictment of the organization either way.

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fohat
Elder Messenger

26 Jul 2017, 04:38

"Every now and then we are going to have to do this: Step back from the daily onslaughts of insanity emanating from Donald Trump’s parasitic presidency and remind ourselves of the obscenity of it all, registering its magnitude in its full, devastating truth. There is something insidious and corrosive about trying to evaluate the severity of every offense, trying to give each an individual grade on the scale of absurdity.

Trump himself is the offense. Everything that springs from him, every person who supports him, every staffer who shields him, every legislator who defends him, is an offense. Every partisan who uses him — against all he or she has ever claimed to champion — to advance a political agenda and, in so doing, places party over country, is an offense.

We must remind ourselves that Trump’s very presence in the White House defiles it and the institution of the presidency. Rather than rising to the honor of the office, Trump has lowered the office with his whiny, fragile, vindictive pettiness. The presidency has been hijacked."

- Charles M Blow 2017-07-03

jacobolus

26 Jul 2017, 06:00

Here’s what Trump says about immigrants today:
And you’ve seen the stories about some of these animals. They don’t want to use guns, because it’s too fast and it’s not painful enough. So they’ll take a young, beautiful girl, 16, 15, and others, and they slice them and dice them with a knife, because they want them to go through excruciating pain before they die. And these are the animals that we’ve been protecting for so long. Well, they’re not being protected any longer, folks.
Trump has truly sick sexual fantasies. I wish he would keep them to himself.

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vivalarevolución
formerly prdlm2009

26 Jul 2017, 15:07

chuckdee wrote:
vivalarevolución wrote:
jacobolus wrote: Trump trying to turn the Boy Scouts into the Trumpjugend
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017 ... couts.html
Boos for Obama and Clinton, chants of “We Love Trump”, weird suggestion he might fire the HHS Secretary, and an allusion to all the sex Trump’s buddy has on his yacht, etc.
Eagle Scout here. That speech and the crowd's reaction leaves me speechless. The Boy Scouts can be a little heavy on obedience, deference to authority, religious overtones, and patriotism, but it's an international organization that is inclusive of many non-Christian faiths and does not teach boys to act like that. The speech and the crowds reactikn are both disappointing.
Eagle Scout here, and I totally agree with you. Not sure if it was just this group, or the organization in general these days, because I haven't been involved for at least 10 years, but it's an indictment of the organization either way.
I haven't been active for 8 years, and even then I didn't care much for the lack of encouragement for independent thinking. Boy Scouts in America tends to lean conservative, Christian, patriotic, suburban or rural, and militaristic. It's a bit of a recruiting ground for the military. Religious groups are an important source of funding. Despite that, the organization can still support and respect a variety of viewpoints and backgrounds. I definitely grew my understanding for religions and countries through Boy Scouts and met plenty of other kids that didn't look like me and were from very different places.. I met plenty of decent people in the Boy Scouts, but, sadly, I can see a good deal of Boy Scouts and their leaders getting riled up by this speech. The leaders could have discouraged the kids from cheering on the political elements, but I'm not sure that occurred.

What boggles me the most about the speech is what the hell goes through a man's head to think that type of speech of is appropriate for a bunch of teenagers. Seriously, bro. He must be so insecure that he has to turn a celebratory gathering into a political rally with a bunch of impressionable teenagers for support and easy cheerS. He will never stop this behavior and will stomp on anyone or anything that tries to stop him because his ego is a bottomless pit of need. What a shit human being.
Last edited by vivalarevolución on 26 Jul 2017, 15:36, edited 1 time in total.

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chuckdee

26 Jul 2017, 15:27

vivalarevolución wrote:
I haven't been active for 8 years, and even then I didn't care much for the lack of encouragement for independent thinking. Boy Scouts in America tends to lean conservative, Christian, patriotic, suburban or rural, and militaristic. It's a bit of a recruiting ground for the military. I met plenty of decent people in the Boy Scouts, but, sadly, I can see a good deal of Boy Scouts and their leaders getting riled up by this speech. The leaders could have discouraged the kids from cheering on the political elements, but I'm not sure that occurred.

What boggles me the most about the speech is what the hell goes through a man's head to think that type of speech of is appropriate for a bunch of teenagers. Seriously, bro. He must be so insecure that he has to turn a celebratory gathering into a political rally with a bunch of impressionable teenagers for support and easy cheerS. He will never stop this behavior and will stomp on anyone or anything that tries to stop him because his ego is a bottomless pit of need. What a shit human being.
I think it really depends a lot on your troop and leadership, but that will be based on the people that gravitate towards it. It really is a service to be in charge of a troop, and many don't get into it to serve. It was not appropriate, but that's on Trump. I'm trying to give them the benefit of the doubt- that they didn't want to be disrespectful to the President.

I will also say that their "17 points" were not the most jaw-dropping to me. The fact that he thought it was appropriate to even give this speech at a jamboree was the most jaw dropping thing. It was a campaign speech. Not appropriate at this type of rally, and I've never seen anyone do such a thing.

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vivalarevolución
formerly prdlm2009

26 Jul 2017, 15:46

I edited my comment a little bit because i understand that people's experiences in the Scouts are highly variable. It does depend a lot on the troop, leadership, and location.

I think the BSA was trying to respect a tradition and avoid a political stance, but they have a difficult line to toe. The Boy Scouts doesn't encourage boys to act like Trump just did. I do hope they come out with a more substantive statement that explains why that sort of speech was inappropriate for the occasion. Trump never ceases to shock, but this was just another level of what the hell is he thinking. He can't control himself for even the most benign of occasions.

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chuckdee

26 Jul 2017, 19:54

vivalarevolución wrote: I edited my comment a little bit because i understand that people's experiences in the Scouts are highly variable. It does depend a lot on the troop, leadership, and location.

I think the BSA was trying to respect a tradition and avoid a political stance, but they have a difficult line to toe. The Boy Scouts doesn't encourage boys to act like Trump just did. I do hope they come out with a more substantive statement that explains why that sort of speech was inappropriate for the occasion. Trump never ceases to shock, but this was just another level of what the hell is he thinking. He can't control himself for even the most benign of occasions.
I don't think they will, unless this continues. They've historically seen what the general tenor is over time before making any response. Trying to make sure they don't bite the hands that feed them.

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vivalarevolución
formerly prdlm2009

26 Jul 2017, 22:58

chuckdee wrote:
vivalarevolución wrote: I edited my comment a little bit because i understand that people's experiences in the Scouts are highly variable. It does depend a lot on the troop, leadership, and location.

I think the BSA was trying to respect a tradition and avoid a political stance, but they have a difficult line to toe. The Boy Scouts doesn't encourage boys to act like Trump just did. I do hope they come out with a more substantive statement that explains why that sort of speech was inappropriate for the occasion. Trump never ceases to shock, but this was just another level of what the hell is he thinking. He can't control himself for even the most benign of occasions.
I don't think they will, unless this continues. They've historically seen what the general tenor is over time before making any response. Trying to make sure they don't bite the hands that feed them.
I knew the Mormon church has a larger than proportional membership in the BSA, but I did not realize it has the highest percentage of membership.

What is troublesome is that the BSA has to consider how their largest sponsors and member organizations will respond to policy changes, rather than supporting the proper treatment of human beings. I've long said that if the BSA loses membership and funding because they decide to take a more humane policy stance, fine, it will results in a better, less discriminatory organization. But money talks. We all know that.

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chuckdee

27 Jul 2017, 17:23

vivalarevolución wrote: I knew the Mormon church has a larger than proportional membership in the BSA, but I did not realize it has the highest percentage of membership.

What is troublesome is that the BSA has to consider how their largest sponsors and member organizations will respond to policy changes, rather than supporting the proper treatment of human beings. I've long said that if the BSA loses membership and funding because they decide to take a more humane policy stance, fine, it will results in a better, less discriminatory organization. But money talks. We all know that.
I personally don't think the BSA is any place for that, just like it's no place for political mongering. If you really roll back the covers on it, you'll see that the BSA has just as many, if not more, problems than the catholic church, if you get what I mean. It's similarly devoid of the high ground to criticize or moralize. It's sad to say, but looking at it from an open-eyed perspective, it's true. Which is the reason for my lack of involvement in the organization. There's a lot of rot there, though exposure to it depends on troop and district and the volunteers at those levels.

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vivalarevolución
formerly prdlm2009

27 Jul 2017, 17:26

I'm gong to put on my jacobolus hat for a minute and share some more disturbing news of straight up delusion in American politics.

The more conservative members of the House want to defund the Non-partisan Congressional Budget Office in favor of information from conservative think tanks, because reality does not jive with their delusional goals and visions: http://www.newsweek.com/house-conservat ... ice-642542

And almost half of Republicans and 28% of Americans overall do not believe that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. However, the poll question was a bit confusing did not specify whether it was referring to the popular vote or electoral college: https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-half- ... 11933.html

So there you have it, folks. If you were wondering whether the fact free rhetoric, ranting, grandstanding, bullying, vitriol, insults and general nonsense have an effect on the beliefs of otherwise average citizens, it certainly does. So when the Donald, his cronies, the GOP, and their donors attempt to dismantle the little bit of democracy we have left in this country, significant segments of the population will be completely a-okay with that. Because liberals and Hillary and stuff.

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vivalarevolución
formerly prdlm2009

27 Jul 2017, 17:47

chuckdee wrote:
vivalarevolución wrote: I knew the Mormon church has a larger than proportional membership in the BSA, but I did not realize it has the highest percentage of membership.

What is troublesome is that the BSA has to consider how their largest sponsors and member organizations will respond to policy changes, rather than supporting the proper treatment of human beings. I've long said that if the BSA loses membership and funding because they decide to take a more humane policy stance, fine, it will results in a better, less discriminatory organization. But money talks. We all know that.
I personally don't think the BSA is any place for that, just like it's no place for political mongering. If you really roll back the covers on it, you'll see that the BSA has just as many, if not more, problems than the catholic church, if you get what I mean. It's similarly devoid of the high ground to criticize or moralize. It's sad to say, but looking at it from an open-eyed perspective, it's true. Which is the reason for my lack of involvement in the organization. There's a lot of rot there, though exposure to it depends on troop and district and the volunteers at those levels.
Yea, I understand what you mean, especially the Catholic Church bit (which by the way is like the #3 membership sponsor in the BSA). I I think my main complaint was the pseudo-military, ultra patriotic, obedient culture, when I'm he type of person that values independent, critical thinking. Also the hesistance to the acceptance of gay Scouts, because we all knew gay Scouts, they were fine Scouts, and the organization was treating them as less than.

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chuckdee

27 Jul 2017, 19:10

Why does it even matter, is my perspective. There's no sex ed badge last I heard... and similarly to the Trump speech- this is no place for it, IMO. There was some kind of basic civics badge, and that should be the extent of it at that age.

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seebart
Offtopicthority Instigator

28 Jul 2017, 17:29

Looks like the new white house communications chief Scaramucci is shaking up the white house internally for whatever reason:
Scaramucci Calls Priebus A F-----G Paranoid Schizophrenic (CNN)

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